Q: yep, thanks for the corrections, my bad, it is yellow jersey. xpsuper - obviously you didn't hear the news that lance decided to come back...
A: Well one answer's calculation of: "1/# of racers" is incorrect. That would be the odds in a random draw for a winner. In reality 3/4 of the field have no chance to win. And only a handful of the remaining 1/4 have a good chance to take the yellow. If he's in very good form he has a good chance of a top 10. A podium spot I think is not likely.