Q: It's being played in Spain, on Clay. Blake has pulled out. America's being represented by Andy Roddick, Sam Querrey, Mike Bryan, and Mardy Fish. Spain is being represented by Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Fernando Verdasco and Feliciano Lopez. How would you rate America's chances of winning this match-up?
A: Nadal vs. Querrey: give Querrey about 10% chance of winning Ferrer vs. Roddick: give Roddick about 40% chance of winning Verdasco/Lopez vs. Bryan/Fish: give Bryan/Fish about 60% chance of winning Nadal vs. Roddick: give Roddick about 20% chance of winning Ferrer vs. Querrey: give Querrey about 30% chance of winning (does not necessarily play in this order) Overall, US has about (10%+40%+60%+20%+30%)/5 = 32% chance of winning, so US can win with a probability of roughly 1/3
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